在气候变化的问题上，我们正在犯同样的错误。我们目前面对的气候泡沫对我们的环境和经济都带来了巨大的风险。警告信号已经非常明显。由于未能控制风险，这种危险变得越来越紧迫。

We’re making the same mistake today with climate change. We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our environment and economy. The warning signs are clear and growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked.

这是一场不容忽视的危机，因为我们无法承担后果。我觉得我正在目睹我们乘坐的飞机慢动作驶向一座巨大的山脉。眼看坠机在即，我们却依然听之任之，而不去改变航向。

This is a crisis we can’t afford to ignore. I feel as if I’m watching as we fly in slow motion on a collision course toward a giant mountain. We can see the crash coming, and yet we’re sitting on our hands rather than altering course.

尽管对如何在应对气候变化的同时保持经济竞争力还存在争议，在我所属的共和党内也不例外，但我们必须立即采取行动。考虑经济影响本身没有错，但我们不能无视听之任之带来的巨大经济风险。

We need to act now, even though there is much disagreement, including from members of my own Republican Party, on how to address this issue while remaining economically competitive. They’re right to consider the economic implications. But we must not lose sight of the profound economic risks of doing nothing.

解决方案从根本上看是符合保守派价值观的。只需让市场发挥作用，就能找到最有效的办法。我们可以为二氧化碳的排放定价，即征收碳税。目前在美国几乎没有人为将这一强大的温室气体排放到我们共享的大气中付费。为排放定价可以为发展更清洁的新能源技术提供激励机制。

The solution can be a fundamentally conservative one that will empower the marketplace to find the most efficient response. We can do this by putting a price on emissions of carbon dioxide — a carbon tax. Few in the United States now pay to emit this potent greenhouse gas into the atmosphere we all share. Putting a price on emissions will create incentives to develop new, cleaner energy technologies.

诚然，美国不可能独自解决这一问题。但是，如果我们不能竭尽全力减缓碳排放并缓释风险，我们就无法说服其他碳排放大国采取所需的紧急行动。

It’s true that the United States can’t solve this problem alone. But we’re not going to be able to persuade other big carbon polluters to take the urgent action that’s needed if we’re not doing everything we can do to slow our carbon emissions and mitigate our risks.

信贷泡沫破灭时我正好担任财政部长，所以我想我对风险、评估后果和解决问题有一定的发言权。回想2008年金融危机最黑暗的日子，很容易看到金融危机与目前我们面对的气候挑战有很多相似之处。

I was secretary of the Treasury when the credit bubble burst, so I think it’s fair to say that I know a little bit about risk, assessing outcomes and problem-solving. Looking back at the dark days of the financial crisis in 2008, it is easy to see the similarities between the financial crisis and the climate challenge we now face.

我们正在积累风险（2008年的时候是债务，目前是吸收热量的温室气体排放）。我们政府的政策有缺陷（当时是鼓励借债买房，现在是鼓励过度使用碳燃料）。我们的专家（当时是金融专家，现在是气候科学家）试图理解他们所看到的现象，并为未来的可能性设计模型。巨大的风险有可能造成极大的破坏（当时是对全球经济，目前是对全球气候）。

We are building up excesses (debt in 2008, greenhouse gas emissions that are trapping heat now). Our government policies are flawed (incentivizing us to borrow too much to finance homes then, and encouraging the overuse of carbon-based fuels now). Our experts (financial experts then, climate scientists now) try to understand what they see and to model possible futures. And the outsize risks have the potential to be tremendously damaging (to a globalized economy then, and the global climate now).

当时，我们通过政府的行动，在最危急的时刻拯救了即将崩溃的金融体系，惊险地避免了经济灾难。但是，气候变化是一个很难对付的问题。我们排放到大气的二氧化碳几百年都不会消散，并不断地为地球加温。

Back then, we narrowly avoided an economic catastrophe at the last minute by rescuing a collapsing financial system through government action. But climate change is a more intractable problem. The carbon dioxide we’re sending into the atmosphere remains there for centuries, heating up the planet.

这就意味着，我们目前所做的决定，也就是延续完全依赖碳的政策，会导致长期的后果，而这种后果是我们无法改变的，只能去适应，而且代价巨大。为了保护纽约不受海平面上升和风暴袭击的影响，预计最初的花费至少是200亿美元，最终可能多得多。而纽约只是沿海城市之一。

That means the decisions we’re making today — to continue along a path that’s almost entirely carbon-dependent — are locking us in for long-term consequences that we will not be able change but only adapt to, at enormous cost. To protect New York City from rising seas and storm surges is expected to cost at least $20 billion initially, and eventually far more. And that’s just one coastal city.

纽约可以合理地预测那些明显的风险。但是，我担心的风险是那些最大的风险，尤其是不可预测的风险，也就是我称为小而深的洞。虽说你不太容易掉到这种洞里，但如果真的掉下去了，不仅是深不可测，而是几乎没有爬出来的可能。

New York can reasonably predict those obvious risks. When I worry about risks, I worry about the biggest ones, particularly those that are difficult to predict — the ones I call small but deep holes. While odds are you will avoid them, if you do fall in one, it’s a long way down and nearly impossible to claw your way out.

科学家们已经发现了几个这样的洞，也就是一旦越过便会产生不可逆转的巨大变化的门槛。他们不知道具体什么时候我们会越过这些门槛。但他们知道我们应该竭尽所能避免这些门槛。

Scientists have identified a number of these holes — potential thresholds that, once crossed, could cause sweeping, irreversible changes. They don’t know exactly when we would reach them. But they know we should do everything we can to avoid them.

现在，我们观察到的变化正在接近多年来建立的科学模型，而且趋势是不利于人类的。

Already, observations are catching up with years of scientific models, and the trends are not in our favor.

不到10年前，最乐观的分析预测，按照北极的海冰融化速度，21世纪末的夏天北极将完全解冻。目前海冰的融化速度非常快，夏天北极完全解冻的状态可能会在未来10年或20年到来。可以反射太阳光的海冰消失意味着更多的热量将被海洋吸收，从而加速海洋和大气的变暖，并最终使海平面上升。

Fewer than 10 years ago, the best analysis projected that melting Arctic sea ice would mean nearly ice-free summers by the end of the 21st century. Now the ice is melting so rapidly that virtually ice-free Arctic summers could be here in the next decade or two. The lack of reflective ice will mean that more of the sun’s heat will be absorbed by the oceans, accelerating warming of both the oceans and the atmosphere, and ultimately raising sea levels.

更糟糕的是，五月份有两份独立的报告显示，最大的一个门槛已被跨越。南极西部的冰原已经开始融化。科学家预测这个过程需要几个世纪才会完成，最终将使海平面上升14英尺。既然这一过程现在已经开始，我们不管做什么都无法逆转这一趋势，科学家们说“生米已经煮成熟饭了”。从现在开始的未来10年内，还有哪些科学家们正在考虑的门槛会被突破呢？

Even worse, in May, two separate studies discovered that one of the biggest thresholds has already been reached. The West Antarctic ice sheet has begun to melt, a process that scientists estimate may take centuries but that could eventually raise sea levels by as much as 14 feet. Now that this process has begun, there is nothing we can do to undo the underlying dynamics, which scientists say are “baked in.” And 10 years from now, will other thresholds be crossed that scientists are only now contemplating?

虽然这些风险和其它许多风险的爆发时间和强度还存在不确定性，但是那些声称科学还没有定论或行动成本太高的人只不过是对问题视而不见罢了。我们必须从全局考虑。

It is true that there is uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of these risks and many others. But those who claim the science is unsettled or action is too costly are simply trying to ignore the problem. We must see the bigger picture.

危机的本质就是不可预测性。正如我们在金融危机中看到的那样，在一个相互联系紧密的系统中，一个部分出了问题，就会发生连锁反应，导致其它部分出现问题。看到一个部分的问题很容易。但计算多米诺效应的影响却很难。这种传染效应差点就拖垮了全球金融体系。

The nature of a crisis is its unpredictability. And as we all witnessed during the financial crisis, a chain reaction of cascading failures ensued from one intertwined part of the system to the next. It’s easy to see a single part in motion. It’s not so easy to calculate the resulting domino effect. That sort of contagion nearly took down the global financial system.

金融危机的经历无疑对我思考问题的方式产生了深远的影响。从风险评估和风险管理的角度来看气候变化，很显然在这个问题上采取谨慎保守的态度，也就是等掌握了更多的信息再行动，实际上承担了巨大的风险。我们永远不可能掌握足够的信息来消除所有不确定性。但是我们掌握的信息足以让我们意识到必须立刻采取行动。

With that experience indelibly affecting my perspective, viewing climate change in terms of risk assessment and risk management makes clear to me that taking a cautiously conservative stance — that is, waiting for more information before acting — is actually taking a very radical risk. We’ll never know enough to resolve all of the uncertainties. But we know enough to recognize that we must act now.

我是一个商人，不是气候学家。但多年来，我一直在与终生研究这一问题的气候科学家和经济学家打交道。地球变暖以及燃烧化石燃料是导致这一结果的主要原因是他们的一致共识。

I’m a businessman, not a climatologist. But I’ve spent a considerable amount of time with climate scientists and economists who have devoted their careers to this issue. There is virtually no debate among them that the planet is warming and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible.

有远见的商业领袖已经参与到气候变化的研究中。现在需要更多的人参与。出于为科学补充可靠财务数据的考虑，我与纽约市前市长迈克尔·彭博及退休的对冲基金经理汤姆·斯泰尔携手，对在气候变化上无所作为在主要地区和经济行业的成本进行了经济分析。我们的“商业风险”项目旨在影响全球的商业和投资决策。这个项目的第一份报告将于本周发布。

Farseeing business leaders are already involved in this issue. It’s time for more to weigh in. To add reliable financial data to the science, I’ve joined with the former mayor of New York City, Michael R. Bloomberg, and the retired hedge fund manager Tom Steyer on an economic analysis of the costs of inaction across key regions and economic sectors. Our goal for the Risky Business project — starting with a new study that will be released this week — is to influence business and investor decision making worldwide.

我们需要制定国策，利用市场力量，为应对气候变化所需的技术进步提供激励机制。正如我前面提到的，我们可以通过对二氧化碳排放征税的方式来实现这一目的。许多受人尊敬的经济学家，无论意识形态的差异，都支持这一做法。我们可以讨论正确的定价和政策设计，以及如何使用征收的碳税。但是为碳定价可以改变个人和企业的行为。与此同时，所有对化石燃料和可再生能源的补贴都应该逐步取消。一旦将污染成本计算在内，可再生能源的经济性可以完胜高污染的燃料。

We need to craft national policy that uses market forces to provide incentives for the technological advances required to address climate change. As I’ve said, we can do this by placing a tax on carbon dioxide emissions. Many respected economists, of all ideological persuasions, support this approach. We can debate the appropriate pricing and policy design and how to use the money generated. But a price on carbon would change the behavior of both individuals and businesses. At the same time, all fossil fuel — and renewable energy — subsidies should be phased out. Renewable energy can outcompete dirty fuels once pollution costs are accounted for.

在我所属的共和党内部，有人担心为碳定价是“大政府”的干预。实际上，征收碳税可以减少政府的干预。按照目前的趋势，受到与气候相关的灾难影响的社区和地区越来越多地需要政府的帮助，例如洪灾、与干旱相关的农业减产以及龙卷风、飓风和其它恶劣风暴等极端天气。我们大家都需要为此付出代价。不是一次，而是反复不断地付出代价。

Some members of my political party worry that pricing carbon is a “big government” intervention. In fact, it will reduce the role of government, which, on our present course, increasingly will be called on to help communities and regions affected by climate-related disasters like floods, drought-related crop failures and extreme weather like tornadoes, hurricanes and other violent storms. We’ll all be paying those costs. Not once, but many times over.

实际上，这种情况正在发生。纳税人的钱被用于重建桑迪飓风和奥克拉荷马州致命龙卷风破坏的房屋。这是政府应尽的职责。但无论是财务上还是逻辑上，我们对深层次的问题采取漠视的态度却是受到了误导。

This is already happening, with taxpayer dollars rebuilding homes damaged by Hurricane Sandy and the deadly Oklahoma tornadoes. This is a proper role of government. But our failure to act on the underlying problem is deeply misguided, financially and logically.

未来的风暴会更加猛烈，干旱会更加严重，山火季节会延长，海平面也会上升，对沿海城市带来威胁。用于适应气候变化和赈灾的公共支出会大大加剧财政赤字，并危及我们的长期经济安全。因此，我真的想不通那些想要小政府并抨击金融救助的人为什么会无视气候变化为经济带来的风险。

In a future with more severe storms, deeper droughts, longer fire seasons and rising seas that imperil coastal cities, public funding to pay for adaptations and disaster relief will add significantly to our fiscal deficit and threaten our long-term economic security. So it is perverse that those who want limited government and rail against bailouts would put the economy at risk by ignoring climate change.

这是短视行为。在问题演变为危机之前，人们往往不愿意去碰那些烫手的山芋，尤其是在政府内部和政界。如果我们坐等气候灾难的到来，那我们就是傻瓜。

This is short-termism. There is a tendency, particularly in government and politics, to avoid focusing on difficult problems until they balloon into crisis. We would be fools to wait for that to happen to our climate.

如果你是一个公司的领导，你肯定希望交给接班人的是一个更好的公司。正如我们不应当留给我们的后代巨额债务和不可持续的社会福利一样，我们也不应当留给他们气候变化的经济和环境成本。共和党人在这个问题上不能退缩。风险管理以及为后代保护我们的自然环境都是保守派的价值观。毕竟，我们的党是西奥多·罗斯福的共和党。

When you run a company, you want to hand it off in better shape than you found it. In the same way, just as we shouldn’t leave our children or grandchildren with mountains of national debt and unsustainable entitlement programs, we shouldn’t leave them with the economic and environmental costs of climate change. Republicans must not shrink from this issue. Risk management is a conservative principle, as is preserving our natural environment for future generations. We are, after all, the party of Teddy Roosevelt.

如果没有发展中国家强有力的领导，这一问题就不可能解决。解决这个问题的关键是中美之间的合作，因为中美两国是全球最大的经济体、最大的二氧化碳排放国和最大的能源消费国。

THIS problem can’t be solved without strong leadership from the developing world. The key is cooperation between the United States and China — the two biggest economies, the two biggest emitters of carbon dioxide and the two biggest consumers of energy.

在发展新技术方面，没有哪个国家的创新力能超过美国。在测试新技术并规模化应用方面，没有哪个国家的速度赶得上中国。

When it comes to developing new technologies, no country can innovate like America. And no country can test new technologies and roll them out at scale quicker than China.

中美两国在气候变化问题上必须携手合作。我在芝加哥大学成立的保尔森基金会是一个知行合一的智库，目标是加强中美两国的经济和环境关系。保尔森基金会的工作重点之一就是促进中美在气候变化上的合作。

The two nations must come together on climate. The Paulson Institute at the University of Chicago, a “think-and-do tank” I founded to help strengthen the economic and environmental relationship between these two countries, is focused on bridging this gap.

在技术方面我们已经取得了较大的进展。向清洁能源推动的经济转型，其政策成本是真实的，但与风险相比算不上什么。

We already have a head start on the technologies we need. The costs of the policies necessary to make the transition to an economy powered by clean energy are real, but modest relative to the risks.

随着美国和其它国家开发新的能源产品和基础设施，对碳排放征税将带来技术发展、降低清洁能源成本，并创造就业的创新。通过减少对俄罗斯和伊朗等政府的依赖，国家安全可以得到加强。

A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create jobs as we and other nations develop new energy products and infrastructure. This would strengthen national security by reducing the world’s dependence on governments like Russia and Iran.

气候变化是我们这个时代的挑战。我们必须意识到风险事关每个人。我们已经看到并感受到低估金融泡沫的代价。我们千万不能忽视气候泡沫。

Climate change is the challenge of our time. Each of us must recognize that the risks are personal. We’ve seen and felt the costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the climate bubble.

更多信息  Further information:

上述评论摘自风险投资机构名为《风险投资：气候变化引发美国经济危机》的报告。该报告作者为芝加哥大学保尔森研究所主席Henry Paulson，其在2006年7月至2009年9月任美国财长。

Above commentary piece is about a report published by the Risky Business Initiative called “Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States”. It was written by Henry Paulson, who is the Chairman of the Paulson Institute at the University of Chicago and secretary of the Treasury from July 2006 to January 2009.

链接：《风险投资：气候变化引发美国经济危机》 Link to “Risky Business: The Economic Risks of Climate Change in the United States” is:
http://riskybusiness.org/report/overview/executive-summary

该“风险商业”研究重点关注这些风险中最清晰、最具经济影响力的方面：海平面上升和风暴潮增强对沿海地产和基础设施的 冲击，气候变化引起农作物产量和能源需求的变化，以及高温对劳动生产率和公众健康的影响。

The Risky Business research focused on the clearest and most economically significant of these risks: Damage to coastal property and infrastructure from rising sea levels and increased storm surge, climate-driven changes in agricultural production and energy demand, and the impact of higher temperatures on labor productivity and public health. 

研究表明，如果我们继续当下的商业模式，那么美国大部分地区未来将面临气候变化带来的严重经济影响。然而，如果我们积极应对，改变发展路线——在适应气候变化和降低排放减轻未来影响两方面都开展行动——那么我们能够显著降低遇到气候变化引发的最严重经济危机的可能性，并在全球应对气候变化方面作出表率。

The findings show that, if we continue on our current path, many regions of the U.S. face the prospect of serious economic effects from climate change. However, if we choose a different path—if we act aggressively to both adapt to the changing climate and to mitigate future impacts by reducing carbon emissions—we can significantly reduce our exposure to the worst economic risks from climate change, and also demonstrate global leadership on climate.

气候变化：大自然的无本金贷款  Climate Change: Nature’s Interest-Only Loan

该研究重点关注当前至2100年间的气候影响，这对大部分的投资者和决策者而言并不遥远。但气候变化非同寻常，今日的决定将直接影响未来的风险。二氧化碳和其它温室气体能在大气中滞留数百年，甚至数千年。这些温室气体的浓度升高将引起“温室效应”，并导致气温上升、海平面上升以及全球气候模式变化。这些影响具有累积效应：如果不采取措施降低当前的温室气体排放量，决策者就等于放任未来全面风险上升，而每年决策者不采取行动，就等于放任这些风险延伸和加剧。在某些方面，气候变化如同无本金贷款，我们正给子孙后代加重负担：他们终将清偿如今我们排放到大气中的温室气体的累积利息，却又不可能实际偿还“排放资本”。

The research focuses on climate impacts from today out to the year 2100, which may seem far off to many investors and policymakers. But climate impacts are unusual in that future risks are directly tied to present decisions. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases can stay in the atmosphere for hundreds or even thousands of years. Higher concentrations of these gases create a “greenhouse effect” and lead to higher temperatures, higher sea levels, and shifts in global weather patterns. The effects are cumulative: By not acting to lower greenhouse gas emissions today, decision-makers put in place processes that increase overall risks tomorrow, and each year those decision-makers fail to act serves to broaden and deepen those risks. In some ways, climate change is like an interest-only loan we are putting on the backs of future generations: They will be stuck paying off the cumulative interest on the greenhouse gas emissions we’re putting into the atmosphere now, with no possibility of actually paying down that “emissions principal.”

关键研究结果凸显了一个现实，如果我们维持现有排放，在未来几十年里，我们的气候风险将会倍增且不断积累。这些风险包括：

Key findings underscore the reality that if we stay on our current emissions path, our climate risks will multiply and accumulate as the decades tick by. These risks include:

• 沿海地产和基础设施的大规模损失
  Large-scale losses of coastal property and infrastructure
  
• 极端炎热天气肆虐全国——尤其是在西南、东南和中西部地区——对劳动生产率、人类健康和能源系统构成威胁
  Extreme heat across the nation—especially in the Southwest, Southeast, and Upper Midwest—threatening labor productivity, human health, and energy systems
  
• 改变农业结构和作物产量，北方地区的农民可能会因此受益，但中西部和南部地区的损失实则抵消了这些收益
  Shifting agricultural patterns and crop yields, with likely gains for Northern farmers offset by losses in the Midwest and South 

如您需了解更多相关信息，敬请联系Helena Ou (电子邮箱:helena.ou@fco.gov.uk, 电话：010-51924291)，如需退订，请邮件联系人，谢谢！
If you want more information, please contact Helena Ou.